Buy a Computer. Right now.

Buy a Computer. Right now.

For today’s video,
I won’t be directly commenting on the recent
health related news because, A, I’m not
a medical professional and B, I don’t need
my video demonetized. Instead I’m gonna be
laser focused on you, the potential
electronics shopper. World events affecting
manufacturing capacity and logistics occur every day, and that’s why your
local computer store has a buffer of inventory rather than just keeping one of
every motherboard on the shelf. Nobody likes carrying
inventory because it ties up cash flow,
but it’s a necessary part of doing business
when your supplier isn’t right down the street. Now, so far these buffers, which exist at
every stage of the chain, be it raw materials,
components, and finished goods have mostly absorbed
the production capacity that’s been lost mostly in China
over the last few weeks, but the cracks
are starting to show. So here’s my argument. If you’re planning an upgrade, I would pull the trigger today rather than do it tomorrow. Let me explain why. This video is brought to you
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at ♪ Part of what’s made this year’s
production interruptions so impactful
is the terrible timing. The Chinese New Year Festival
is already a period of low productivity in China because most factories
shut down for about two weeks while their workers travel home
to enjoy some time off with their friends and families. Now, experienced product
managers will plan around this, building up some extra inventory
to compensate for it, but even for experienced people,
two weeks is a long time, and human error
or other small roadblocks can already lead
to fewer promotions around this time of year, while retailers conserve stock until the factories
can kick back up and start shipping
product again. Except that this year,
they didn’t kick back up and start shipping product. February 8th was supposed to be
the end of the festival but instead it marked the
16th day of the Wuhan quarantine and Hong Kong’s forced
quarantine policy for travelers from China. Now I’m recording this video
on February 25th, and according
to my conversations with industry sources
who preferred to stay off the record, as of last week, production capacity
at major manufacturers– so we’re talking like the Foxconns and Compals
of the world– had finally ramped up
to about 15 percent, with this week expected to be
closer to 30 or 40, which sounds like
pretty good news. But I still stand behind
the title of this video. Apple has already issued
an update a week ago citing global supply constraints
as part of the reason that they were
not expecting to hit their second quarter
revenue forecast, and from an unrelated
conversation with a major SSD manufacturer, I learned that all of their SSDs
are currently on allocation. Allocation means that customers
are welcome to place orders for however many units
they want, but current supply is not enough
to fulfill them all and the company is working
to strategically distribute what they have. Here’s the thing: The major players are
beginning to return to work, but there are a lot of other
moving parts in the machine that puts a shiny new iPhone
on your doorstep every year. Right now, the big factories
don’t have a supply issue, because much like a retailer, they buffer the supplies
that they need in order to produce products. But those familiar with the
concept of just-in-time delivery will know that they try to keep
as little on hand as possible under normal conditions. So the subcontractor factories
who turn raw materials like copper into
finished printed circuit boards for those major manufacturers, well, so far they haven’t been
able to ramp back up as fast and they might not
be able to apply the same amount
of pressure on regulators to get back up to full capacity. So we can make an educated guess
that if someone like Pegatron doesn’t have enough PCBs, their customers aren’t
going to be receiving enough completed graphics cards
anytime soon. The other issue is logistics. Chinese officials are apparently
smoothing out the process of clearing drivers and
dock workers to return to work and it is getting better, but a lot of
the transportation workers still haven’t returned to work or they’re in precincts where they’re not allowed
to travel to other regions. Now to protect my source, I won’t say what kind of product
I’m talking about, but I did hear an anecdote about a couple thousand finished
units of a large device sitting there ready to ship out with just two drivers
to move them out. So we could be
in a position where even if people are
at the factory working and building things, there could be no way
for us to get them. And while I’ve been focused
mostly on China so far, this is not just
a Chinese problem. Even with all
the outsourcing last year due to tariff concerns, a lot of what was outsourced
was sub assembly or final assembly
to Mexico, India, Vietnam, or what have you. But the thing is,
all the sub components still need to come out of China
for assembly, so it’s gonna hit everyone,
even if it’s indirectly. Where we really run into trouble is if it starts to affect others
directly as well. Samsung just closed
one of their phone factories in Korea last weekend due to a confirmed infection
of one of the workers there. Anon Tech has the most recent
hard numbers I could find, and as of the midpoint
of last year, South Korea,
including Samsung, who holds the lion’s share
of the market, was still producing about
70 percent of the world’s DRAM, so that’s the memory for your
PC, phone, and game console, and about half
of the world’s 3D NAND, so those are the storage chips
in your SSDs, your phones, and, yes, game consoles. Nothing has happened on
the game console front yet, but because of that last point, SSDs in particular could be
in a very vulnerable position. NAND was already expected
to jump this year after enjoying a period of
never-before-seen affordability, and there are multiple factors
that speculators could have expected
to contribute to this. Client devices have almost
entirely abandoned mechanical drives
except on the very low end, data centers are using
more SSDs than ever before to improve performance in
highly virtualized deployments or I/O intensive workloads, and both Sony and Microsoft
are going to be shipping their next generation
game consoles in holiday 2020 with SSDs
rather than hard drives for the first time. By the way, total aside, console gamers,
welcome to 2010. It’s awesome,
you’re gonna like it. Back on topic, though. The best case scenario
for all of this is that the candidate vaccine that’s scheduled to begin
human trials at the end of April will be fast and cheap
to manufacture and 100 percent
safe and effective, or even that
it won’t be necessary because hotter weather
will stop the spread, and maybe in a few years’ time, we’ll be looking back at this
as a disproportionate amount of media coverage over a particularly nasty strain
of the flu. But if it does not
play out like that, there’s no clear end in sight. This example of inventory
hoarding and price increases is actually not
from the tech industry but rather from speaking
with a buddy of mine who runs a local gym. Pricing for bulk purchases
of badminton shuttles or birdies of all things is skyrocketing right now, and that assumes that
you can even find any to buy. Even has been
affected, by the way. Many of our China sourced items
are out of stock. Now, back when
the Thailand floods knocked out an estimated 30 percent
of the hard drive industry’s manufacturing capacity in 2011, I actually still remember the
same kind of hoarding behavior that I saw from my buddy
at the badminton facility who’s just buying
every shuttle he can find. I remember getting this memo from the president
of the company telling everyone
to go and buy– like literally,
go get in their cars and buy as many cheap
external hard drives, which sometimes trail
the bare drives in terms of pricing
fluctuations, as we were allowed to
from local big-box stores so that we could strip
the enclosures off of them and then sell them
in our systems or to bare drive customers. Like, if it stretches on
for too long, guys, even the used market
will be affected. When the pricing
of brand new hard drives went up 50 percent
from the manufacturer, retailers added
an additional markup because they couldn’t get
enough supply, and the thing is, the pricing of used hardware
tends to follow the trend set by new hardware, minus some expected discount for the uncertainty
of not having a warranty. So in summary,
if you’re waiting for some new
or upcoming product like Intel’s
10th Gen desktop chips or NVIDIA’s upcoming
3000 series GPUs, there is nothing
that you can do for now other than hope that they
don’t get delayed too much. But if you were holding off
on pulling the trigger on something that’s
already available today, I would do it today
rather than tomorrow. I’m not here
to debate the measures that are being put in place or the validity
of the ongoing health concerns. I’m just here
to point at the events that arise from these concerns and how they could affect
tech enthusiasts. If you’re looking
for a recommendation for a good system,
by the way, you can check out
one of our recent build guides. The $900 Ryzen Gaming Build and our Intel Core i7
First Person View gaming build are both great starting points. You know what else
is a great starting point? This message from our sponsor,
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a purchase of $50 or more, so go check it out. So thanks for watching, guys. Hope you enjoyed this video, it’s a little different
from our usual style, but hey, leave a comment, let me know what you think,
all right?

100 thoughts on “Buy a Computer. Right now.

  1. linus can you gift me a good graphics card any graphics card i will accept it because i don't have a money to buy a gpu here in the Philippines because the price is so high
    my pc is currently running in amd a8 8650k
    btw thanks in advance 🙂

  2. Yeah let's all run out right now and buy computer upgrades and electronics that we definitely do not need aimd coronavirus outbreak sure let's not by any food or needed supplies to survive let's just buy electronic junk today not tomorrow lmao

  3. Hey
    I have a problem with my laptop .. It turn on and i have black screen and it shutdown in 5 seconds .. I have hp pro book …
    Can some1 help me?

  4. hi linus im ur no.1 Fan from philippines. wish that u can gave me ur old pc .😁 thank you and godbless more power

  5. Well said, and I fully agree. After putting off buying a new PC for the past 2 years, I built one myself last January, oblivious to the outbreak, and boy am I glad I got away with it that easily. Lucky timing.

  6. I really want a pc and Ik I can make earning I'm a really a good fortnite player who ever wanna buy it for me I will give u my earnings from fortnite when I start earning them plzz hope I have ready this message If u need my address I got u

  7. "Linus explains why he things global supply shortages due to China’s shut down could have long term impacts on the prices of PC components. " Did anyone miss the typo here?

  8. I just built a custom dual boot Hackintosh / Gamer PC in the beginning of february. Right now Denmark is more or less in complete lockdown and I'm in quarantine at home, so… I've been playing a lot of The Division 2! 😛
    In all seriousness though, this is a really bad situation, and I hope all the different companies within all the different industries will pull through.

  9. Yep Linus, your are correct. Since I was delaying on getting it, ordered on March 13 all my parts. Two days after I ordered my parts in Canada the parts went up 45%.

    I got the XFX RX 5700 DD ultra for like 540 new instead of spending 680$ like it would be normal

    Correction Linus. Hotter weather is actually worse for the virus. All viruses spread in heat. It’s why there are no plagues in Antarctica. And why we Norse people have lived for 15K years without infections or viruses. The cold bellow -15* destroys proteins in viruses making it almost impossible for them to replicate.

    It also slows down a viruses incubation time and makes it easier for your body to kill the virus before it clones it’s RNA. The way we treat viruses has always worked. You heat the body up to 39.1* then jump into snow at min -10*. Or ice bath. And you repeat this 6 times. This knocks out all your illness and your cured like a bull.

    But most Canadians are to weak to use this form of treatment

  10. Whats going on is that get a computer before they sell out and you regret it also shipping will be slow so get it fast and resources are limited

  11. The situation is so much worse now you have to have a lot of money as a lot of people are being forced to stop working from any point for a week or three months

  12. Before 3 week ago My pc dead. Because I have no money to buy new pc. Sir do you have second hand corsair i165 pc if u possible to gift for me. Sir Plz help me…..

  13. Linus you need to see this :

  14. Linus: Buy a new computer NOW.
    *Coronavirus enters the chat
    Me: Too late. I'll go get food and toilet paper instead.

  15. #Aliexpress US $280.12 18%OFF | FREEZEMOD computer water cooling system Set professional set 5 for rigid tube ,FREEZEMOD-PKH5

  16. So which tech giant are you in bed with to goose sales to make that extra $ this week? Corporate shill. We have said it before, and we'll say it again. You got enough Linus bucks to protect your wife and kids if there is a really bad situation? Or you gonna fend people off with a broom? lol

  17. 3 days ago I've bought my first pc for gaming, something basic because I would like to start with old good games from the 90s. It's a Ryzen 5 3400G, 16GB DDR4 3000 Mhz Ram, SSD 240 GB, I just watched this video, now I know I made the right choice 🙂

  18. >welcome to 2010, you gona like it

    >ps5 ssd speeds of 5.5Gb/s raw and up to 9Gb/s compressed speeds. Not a single SSD on pc market capable hitting these speeds.

  19. If I am planing an upgrade I would stop, because I need to have liquid buffer of cash because there is high chance that I would lose my job

  20. i just bought a $1696.43 USD gaming pc with an AMD Ryzen 9 3900x with an AMD Radeon RX 5600 XT and 512GB SSD.

  21. It's weird getting these mixed messages from hardware YouTubers as Gamers Nexus gives the exact opposite advice.

    Looking at hardware prices, I tend to be on the more patient site. Everything is already expensive, and the next 1-2 months will see a massive economic recession and quarantine in the Americas and Europe, meanwhile, production in Asia is picking back up. This could mean that by the time we get through this corona situation, there could be quite an oversupply of hardware and thus lower prices.

  22. Hey! bro I really love your video and its amazing because of that I watch some more videos. and you really inspired me and only because of your inspiration I Started youtube channel in computer field and I think that I am your fan and you also support me

  23. Literally my favorite youtuber on YOUTUBE!! Just starting to stream on twitch and thinking about making an official Youtube Channel, Vlogging and narrating. Linus you and your crew is the best!! Keep up the amazing work. Also, thanks for the advice on the PC's and buying a PC. Looking into buying my stream PC.

  24. Everyone! Try running to help find a cure for diseases and other health related issues

  25. Hlo linus tech I don't know what is your name but i need help little help my brother channel Wiztechie is new channel i want your support for more vedios making and views my brother is so intelligent and he love electronics and so much excitements please veiw his vedios my name is afnan my brother name is sufyan thanks for giving your time 😊

  26. Now, Chinese production is coming back, but everyone else is shutting down… It's not a good year for…everything.

  27. Hey I’ve been trying to save up 600 dollars for a gaming computer (components to custom build), and I still haven’t hit 200 dollars in half a year of saving. Any tips? I’m getting kind of anxious.

  28. I can’t believe I’de never heard of you before today, (but one of the silver linings during this is having extra time to explore new videos and creators :-). Your video is fantastic and you’re clearly a very smart and eloquent guy. I look forward to watching more of your content. Stay safe and healthy!

  29. We're at the beginning of a global recession. People need to be saving money for essentials. Kind of disappointed that you still have this video pinned to your channel.

  30. well, talking about vaccines, american pharmaceuticals are really the devil to the american people. chasing the dollar than acually saving lives.

  31. 7:10 it's not like the flu!!! It's like a really really bad pneumonia. If you ever had pneumonia, you know how awful that is. Coffing up so much mucus, having problems with breathing. Now imagine it 10 times worse. Now imagine your gran is suffering from it. Don't downplay it please! Words matter. It's not like the flu.

  32. Currently debating between the Dell XPS and a Mac. Guess I need to speed up the process lol

  33. I mean I have an apple store 30 minutes away without traffic (Which is normally terrible) is that local lol

  34. Hey I’m having some trouble with the of I’m building I was wondering if you or one of the guys can come over to try and help me

  35. People watch LTT for Linus' tech expertise but his business acumen is why he is heads above us. Paraphrased, he once commented "Nice to have your name on your own building". Yup.

  36. Hear any word on the new Samsung odyssey g7/g9 monitors? I know they’re due Q2. Haven’t seen any news on that or if South Korea kept up with production of those facilities or not.

  37. I built my latest rig two and a half years ago … I'm really TIRED of building a new system every few years. I will NOT be building a new system for several years, and I simply don't give a shit about hoarding of HDs, MBs, SIMMS …….. SDIs, sound cards and whatever else. I'm too old, too tired, and just sick and tired of the steady march of technology.

  38. Bro can u give me a phone…i like to stream pubg but don't have any phone with good performance….every day you got many phone..can you give me one…it would be much help full for me

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